Return to TCO 2004 Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 268435456 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| tomek | 3524 | 334 | $11,569.83 | 99.989% | 99.691% | 94.347% | 81.683% | 5.234% | 12.199% | 21.609% | 42.640% |
| SnapDragon | 3390 | 281 | $7,317.25 | 99.995% | 99.719% | 90.103% | 63.745% | 6.652% | 15.263% | 22.081% | 19.749% |
| Eryx | 3283 | 348 | $4,972.95 | 99.795% | 97.337% | 79.374% | 50.366% | 10.701% | 14.136% | 13.921% | 11.609% |
| snewman | 3265 | 283 | $4,404.20 | 99.972% | 98.980% | 83.233% | 46.615% | 9.379% | 14.686% | 13.864% | 8.686% |
| reid | 3216 | 330 | $3,280.28 | 99.762% | 96.694% | 71.177% | 35.002% | 8.991% | 10.549% | 9.228% | 6.235% |
| Yarin | 3072 | 367 | $1,714.48 | 98.441% | 88.917% | 53.590% | 18.924% | 7.110% | 5.613% | 3.833% | 2.368% |
| ZorbaTHut | 3066 | 213 | $1,113.79 | 99.985% | 98.352% | 63.115% | 10.426% | 3.807% | 3.889% | 2.114% | 0.616% |
| John Dethridge | 3135 | 401 | $2,346.71 | 98.345% | 89.626% | 55.222% | 25.558% | 8.551% | 7.183% | 5.604% | 4.219% |
| antimatter | 2789 | 396 | $543.44 | 90.122% | 62.016% | 19.390% | 4.522% | 2.719% | 1.129% | 0.483% | 0.191% |
| bstanescu | 2847 | 418 | $710.80 | 91.307% | 66.410% | 24.281% | 7.167% | 3.991% | 1.839% | 0.901% | 0.435% |
| radeye | 3002 | 361 | $1,234.10 | 97.712% | 85.057% | 41.313% | 13.632% | 5.967% | 4.103% | 2.386% | 1.176% |
| venco | 2848 | 279 | $563.47 | 97.855% | 79.907% | 22.772% | 2.894% | 1.647% | 0.870% | 0.306% | 0.071% |
| nicka81 | 2754 | 342 | $434.92 | 91.729% | 62.273% | 14.467% | 2.057% | 1.292% | 0.526% | 0.186% | 0.054% |
| WishingBone | 2798 | 212 | $483.87 | 99.187% | 81.899% | 15.412% | 0.720% | 0.450% | 0.211% | 0.052% | 0.007% |
| dgarthur | 2773 | 455 | $517.54 | 86.164% | 56.196% | 16.134% | 4.317% | 2.559% | 1.011% | 0.488% | 0.258% |
| lars | 2743 | 346 | $419.31 | 90.982% | 60.537% | 13.194% | 1.913% | 1.219% | 0.480% | 0.167% | 0.048% |
| haha | 2806 | 491 | $634.67 | 85.898% | 57.252% | 18.663% | 6.314% | 3.602% | 1.454% | 0.773% | 0.485% |
| bigg_nate | 2620 | 358 | $284.91 | 82.963% | 43.674% | 6.372% | 0.785% | 0.565% | 0.164% | 0.045% | 0.011% |
| gepa | 2571 | 380 | $242.86 | 77.902% | 36.848% | 4.843% | 0.635% | 0.470% | 0.123% | 0.033% | 0.008% |
| jms137 | 2638 | 323 | $302.88 | 86.648% | 47.810% | 6.549% | 0.654% | 0.469% | 0.143% | 0.035% | 0.007% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2710 | 313 | $379.54 | 91.520% | 58.828% | 10.349% | 1.170% | 0.785% | 0.288% | 0.081% | 0.017% |
| mathijs | 2705 | 419 | $393.36 | 84.568% | 50.990% | 11.388% | 2.491% | 1.611% | 0.569% | 0.224% | 0.087% |
| jshute | 2779 | 447 | $531.41 | 86.878% | 57.329% | 16.293% | 4.539% | 2.692% | 1.077% | 0.510% | 0.259% |
| grotmol | 2565 | 797 | $395.18 | 64.041% | 30.966% | 8.456% | 4.185% | 2.724% | 0.620% | 0.380% | 0.460% |
| texel | 2691 | 491 | $399.72 | 79.991% | 46.128% | 11.180% | 3.092% | 1.978% | 0.652% | 0.300% | 0.163% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| Klinck | 2587 | 270 | $259.67 | 87.187% | 42.446% | 3.130% | 0.136% | 0.104% | 0.027% | 0.005% | 0.001% |
| ChristopherH | 2471 | 374 | $168.02 | 69.617% | 25.610% | 2.014% | 0.184% | 0.146% | 0.030% | 0.007% | 0.001% |
| LunaticFringe | 2710 | 395 | $386.54 | 86.260% | 52.966% | 11.246% | 2.068% | 1.336% | 0.485% | 0.182% | 0.065% |
| marian | 2526 | 172 | $206.60 | 91.926% | 32.114% | 0.546% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| AdrianKuegel | 2606 | 261 | $279.41 | 89.349% | 46.060% | 3.597% | 0.156% | 0.118% | 0.032% | 0.006% | 0.001% |
| monsoon | 2490 | 341 | $178.66 | 73.187% | 27.599% | 1.959% | 0.148% | 0.118% | 0.025% | 0.005% | 0.001% |
| ploh | 2495 | 249 | $179.40 | 80.569% | 27.702% | 0.959% | 0.024% | 0.019% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| benetin | 2500 | 275 | $184.10 | 78.829% | 28.678% | 1.310% | 0.050% | 0.041% | 0.008% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| Ryan | 2574 | 339 | $243.13 | 80.783% | 38.254% | 3.951% | 0.388% | 0.293% | 0.075% | 0.017% | 0.003% |
| aneubeck | 2534 | 390 | $213.60 | 74.364% | 32.407% | 3.559% | 0.479% | 0.365% | 0.086% | 0.022% | 0.005% |
| DjinnKahn | 2347 | 207 | $69.69 | 62.655% | 7.671% | 0.040% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| doeth | 2276 | 321 | $64.67 | 49.525% | 7.957% | 0.135% | 0.005% | 0.005% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ambrose | 2270 | 263 | $51.34 | 48.513% | 5.414% | 0.038% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| JongMan | 2399 | 578 | $161.38 | 58.214% | 21.242% | 2.874% | 0.795% | 0.614% | 0.115% | 0.044% | 0.023% |
| evd | 2306 | 327 | $76.92 | 53.200% | 10.019% | 0.218% | 0.010% | 0.008% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Olexiy | 2539 | 490 | $234.07 | 70.251% | 31.792% | 4.950% | 1.172% | 0.856% | 0.208% | 0.076% | 0.032% |
| PMH | 2355 | 398 | $108.84 | 57.537% | 15.609% | 0.811% | 0.079% | 0.067% | 0.010% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| overwise | 2453 | 437 | $164.43 | 65.483% | 24.242% | 2.336% | 0.359% | 0.284% | 0.056% | 0.015% | 0.004% |
| cnettel | 2264 | 348 | $65.38 | 48.179% | 8.219% | 0.169% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Wasteland | 2259 | 334 | $61.30 | 47.502% | 7.486% | 0.127% | 0.005% | 0.005% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cvoinescu | 2180 | 197 | $18.87 | 30.781% | 0.695% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Ken_Vogel | 2265 | 500 | $89.46 | 48.815% | 12.325% | 0.802% | 0.129% | 0.109% | 0.015% | 0.004% | 0.001% |
| Maris | 2341 | 295 | $86.10 | 58.236% | 11.368% | 0.205% | 0.006% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| daveagp | 2193 | 349 | $45.28 | 40.137% | 5.030% | 0.066% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| krijgertje | 2308 | 465 | $99.23 | 52.426% | 13.964% | 0.882% | 0.120% | 0.101% | 0.015% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| tmyklebu | 2237 | 329 | $53.61 | 44.802% | 6.229% | 0.084% | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| legakis | 2205 | 202 | $23.63 | 35.658% | 1.160% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Ruberik | 2293 | 450 | $91.45 | 51.176% | 12.746% | 0.693% | 0.082% | 0.070% | 0.010% | 0.002% | 0.001% |
| RalphFurmaniak | 2203 | 385 | $53.58 | 42.057% | 6.474% | 0.135% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Modulator | 2251 | 318 | $55.86 | 46.377% | 6.524% | 0.083% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ssancho2 | 2181 | 341 | $41.16 | 38.555% | 4.370% | 0.047% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| pparys | 2240 | 408 | $67.56 | 46.090% | 8.803% | 0.277% | 0.021% | 0.018% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hauser | 2212 | 465 | $68.08 | 44.173% | 8.988% | 0.383% | 0.042% | 0.037% | 0.004% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| bogklug | 2201 | 299 | $38.80 | 39.573% | 3.801% | 0.024% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Matei | 2108 | 316 | $23.98 | 29.279% | 1.868% | 0.008% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dark_lord | 2035 | 236 | $8.39 | 15.099% | 0.167% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| martinp534 | 2313 | 419 | $94.19 | 53.173% | 13.218% | 0.641% | 0.059% | 0.050% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| ColinMacLeod | 2003 | 333 | $14.12 | 20.234% | 0.800% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mickle | 2051 | 263 | $11.74 | 19.248% | 0.422% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dvickrey | 2075 | 393 | $29.09 | 30.031% | 2.808% | 0.030% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| robymus | 2062 | 285 | $14.81 | 22.218% | 0.741% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| valeriy | 2038 | 268 | $11.15 | 18.369% | 0.392% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Sord | 2027 | 293 | $12.47 | 19.399% | 0.554% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| marek.cygan | 2030 | 313 | $14.59 | 21.200% | 0.798% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Jumping John | 2020 | 244 | $8.05 | 14.449% | 0.165% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| rem | 2083 | 257 | $14.02 | 22.225% | 0.582% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| moggy | 1920 | 184 | $1.40 | 2.784% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| konqueror | 1975 | 413 | $19.20 | 22.931% | 1.545% | 0.012% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| WhiteShadow | 1977 | 301 | $9.58 | 15.708% | 0.345% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Andrew_Lazarev | 2008 | 536 | $36.34 | 30.511% | 4.144% | 0.126% | 0.015% | 0.014% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| cruizza | 1967 | 269 | $6.86 | 12.301% | 0.142% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Veloso | 2003 | 420 | $22.86 | 25.401% | 2.028% | 0.020% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| agh | 2029 | 284 | $11.83 | 18.856% | 0.481% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| riveria | 2088 | 375 | $28.73 | 30.372% | 2.704% | 0.025% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| amirshim | 1952 | 404 | $16.27 | 20.768% | 1.177% | 0.007% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| qsort | 1909 | 291 | $5.62 | 10.163% | 0.108% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| gunnark | 2094 | 327 | $23.41 | 28.435% | 1.838% | 0.008% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| shuniu | 1885 | 266 | $3.65 | 6.972% | 0.034% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| rotoZOOM | 2017 | 533 | $37.31 | 31.005% | 4.285% | 0.133% | 0.016% | 0.014% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| tgu | 1895 | 380 | $10.37 | 15.491% | 0.524% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kyky | 1935 | 316 | $8.25 | 13.743% | 0.275% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| centipede80 | 1803 | 403 | $7.40 | 11.778% | 0.302% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| lanenal | 1798 | 301 | $2.89 | 5.515% | 0.027% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| anikov | 1695 | 333 | $2.07 | 3.976% | 0.016% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| indigo9 | 1797 | 299 | $2.80 | 5.363% | 0.024% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| nealzane | 1889 | 420 | $12.89 | 17.517% | 0.826% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Jasko | 1823 | 572 | $19.97 | 21.121% | 1.862% | 0.035% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| InsaneParadox | 1747 | 417 | $6.10 | 10.015% | 0.218% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| solman | 1669 | 518 | $8.12 | 11.835% | 0.440% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| DimaGer | 1706 | 575 | $12.76 | 15.818% | 0.964% | 0.012% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kolodrub | 1641 | 348 | $1.73 | 3.338% | 0.012% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| liympanda | 2049 | 454 | $32.75 | 30.472% | 3.481% | 0.064% | 0.005% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| EnckePan | 1687 | 388 | $3.48 | 6.310% | 0.065% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dmytro | 1510 | 531 | $4.41 | 7.301% | 0.152% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Rustyoldman | 1527 | 473 | $3.11 | 5.541% | 0.069% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |