Return to TopCoder Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 134217728 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| SnapDragon | 3464 | 316 | $30,632.16 | 99.998% | 99.405% | 86.354% | 2.174% | 8.408% | 22.986% | 52.786% |
| tomek | 3255 | 356 | $15,605.44 | 99.880% | 95.192% | 67.924% | 6.945% | 15.412% | 24.585% | 20.982% |
| reid | 3048 | 374 | $6,697.35 | 99.044% | 84.486% | 42.899% | 10.746% | 13.746% | 11.732% | 6.676% |
| ZorbaTHut | 2918 | 427 | $3,630.69 | 96.022% | 70.221% | 25.708% | 9.409% | 7.745% | 5.521% | 3.034% |
| NGBronson | 2968 | 388 | $4,453.94 | 98.006% | 77.426% | 31.009% | 9.893% | 9.884% | 7.401% | 3.831% |
| Yarin | 2938 | 311 | $3,631.43 | 99.300% | 81.143% | 27.804% | 8.677% | 10.148% | 6.667% | 2.312% |
| bladerunner | 2832 | 324 | $2,098.90 | 97.921% | 69.169% | 15.683% | 6.086% | 5.534% | 3.142% | 0.921% |
| ChristopherH | 2786 | 357 | $1,612.44 | 95.773% | 61.395% | 10.281% | 4.201% | 3.406% | 2.009% | 0.666% |
| radeye | 2731 | 360 | $1,182.21 | 94.051% | 54.603% | 6.071% | 2.636% | 1.956% | 1.110% | 0.369% |
| dmwright | 2750 | 356 | $1,215.26 | 94.837% | 57.109% | 5.593% | 2.259% | 1.811% | 1.114% | 0.410% |
| bstanescu | 2746 | 295 | $1,092.46 | 97.411% | 60.129% | 4.143% | 1.640% | 1.453% | 0.819% | 0.231% |
| venco | 2741 | 318 | $1,095.66 | 96.340% | 58.118% | 4.444% | 1.832% | 1.501% | 0.852% | 0.259% |
| WishingBone | 2900 | 407 | $2,508.53 | 96.364% | 69.909% | 13.676% | 4.340% | 4.123% | 3.337% | 1.876% |
| ambrose | 2610 | 355 | $722.09 | 89.280% | 39.782% | 2.899% | 1.599% | 0.849% | 0.363% | 0.088% |
| malpt | 2677 | 391 | $1,006.13 | 90.314% | 46.880% | 5.587% | 2.820% | 1.659% | 0.838% | 0.269% |
| DjinnKahn | 2529 | 276 | $499.08 | 90.289% | 28.926% | 1.167% | 0.751% | 0.322% | 0.084% | 0.010% |
| bigg_nate | 2672 | 497 | $1,153.17 | 84.473% | 43.128% | 7.240% | 3.730% | 1.890% | 1.090% | 0.530% |
| snewman | 2949 | 579 | $3,887.79 | 91.145% | 63.234% | 22.050% | 7.794% | 5.445% | 4.578% | 4.234% |
| dary | 2642 | 454 | $982.16 | 85.160% | 41.273% | 6.183% | 3.348% | 1.673% | 0.840% | 0.322% |
| tjq | 2608 | 275 | $696.57 | 94.374% | 40.352% | 2.862% | 1.674% | 0.887% | 0.265% | 0.036% |
| doeth | 2407 | 423 | $390.09 | 71.343% | 19.512% | 1.214% | 0.847% | 0.263% | 0.085% | 0.019% |
| obfuscator | 2379 | 304 | $296.43 | 75.476% | 13.534% | 0.344% | 0.257% | 0.071% | 0.014% | 0.001% |
| evd | 2439 | 440 | $444.85 | 73.057% | 22.378% | 1.660% | 1.117% | 0.374% | 0.134% | 0.035% |
| antimatter | 2526 | 302 | $512.53 | 88.077% | 29.058% | 1.505% | 0.966% | 0.412% | 0.112% | 0.015% |
| Xu Chuan | 2337 | 359 | $279.93 | 68.004% | 12.537% | 0.360% | 0.271% | 0.071% | 0.016% | 0.002% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| legakis | 2243 | 201 | $155.10 | 64.136% | 1.586% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| zoidal | 2306 | 324 | $238.36 | 66.344% | 9.220% | 0.165% | 0.129% | 0.030% | 0.006% | 0.001% |
| LunaticFringe | 2166 | 641 | $265.17 | 49.778% | 10.876% | 0.716% | 0.542% | 0.108% | 0.046% | 0.020% |
| Oblok | 2189 | 396 | $190.96 | 51.957% | 6.101% | 0.106% | 0.087% | 0.016% | 0.003% | 0.000% |
| schveiguy | 2329 | 292 | $242.63 | 70.760% | 9.299% | 0.134% | 0.104% | 0.025% | 0.004% | 0.000% |
| adic | 2311 | 357 | $255.73 | 65.441% | 10.775% | 0.242% | 0.185% | 0.045% | 0.010% | 0.001% |
| Maris | 2199 | 257 | $151.84 | 54.547% | 2.209% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Logan | 2158 | 406 | $179.01 | 48.853% | 5.291% | 0.080% | 0.066% | 0.011% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2286 | 452 | $273.59 | 60.211% | 12.206% | 0.449% | 0.336% | 0.082% | 0.025% | 0.006% |
| vorthys | 2044 | 410 | $138.90 | 37.911% | 2.545% | 0.021% | 0.018% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Wasteland | 2263 | 389 | $231.86 | 59.519% | 9.142% | 0.189% | 0.147% | 0.033% | 0.008% | 0.001% |
| Abednego | 2283 | 334 | $224.42 | 63.318% | 8.274% | 0.114% | 0.090% | 0.021% | 0.004% | 0.000% |
| haha | 2335 | 344 | $269.26 | 68.513% | 11.841% | 0.229% | 0.171% | 0.045% | 0.011% | 0.001% |
| eldering | 2294 | 385 | $252.00 | 62.710% | 10.696% | 0.223% | 0.170% | 0.042% | 0.011% | 0.002% |
| gilbert | 2123 | 219 | $120.67 | 41.602% | 0.406% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| milhouse | 2280 | 402 | $247.82 | 60.860% | 10.452% | 0.222% | 0.169% | 0.041% | 0.011% | 0.002% |
| Modulator | 1981 | 290 | $103.64 | 25.754% | 0.288% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mathijs | 2282 | 532 | $299.80 | 58.396% | 13.829% | 0.631% | 0.452% | 0.115% | 0.047% | 0.016% |
| Ryan | 2201 | 462 | $217.71 | 52.715% | 8.394% | 0.177% | 0.137% | 0.029% | 0.009% | 0.002% |
| halflife | 2093 | 270 | $121.84 | 38.831% | 0.798% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jshute | 2220 | 333 | $185.24 | 56.030% | 5.322% | 0.036% | 0.029% | 0.006% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| jonmac | 2227 | 570 | $271.42 | 54.026% | 11.986% | 0.496% | 0.363% | 0.084% | 0.036% | 0.014% |
| madking | 2096 | 230 | $116.05 | 37.481% | 0.356% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cvoinescu | 2466 | 334 | $406.33 | 81.298% | 22.858% | 0.509% | 0.327% | 0.132% | 0.043% | 0.008% |
| along | 2204 | 403 | $199.44 | 53.412% | 6.893% | 0.066% | 0.052% | 0.011% | 0.003% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| skanthak | 2053 | 421 | $143.79 | 39.042% | 2.935% | 0.014% | 0.012% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| wleite | 2060 | 294 | $118.57 | 35.441% | 0.812% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| gepa | 2143 | 584 | $223.64 | 48.174% | 8.977% | 0.246% | 0.186% | 0.038% | 0.016% | 0.007% |
| space | 2005 | 246 | $101.55 | 25.227% | 0.132% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hgliebe | 2007 | 416 | $130.38 | 34.733% | 2.047% | 0.007% | 0.006% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Klinck | 2142 | 284 | $138.25 | 46.118% | 1.709% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mathgodleo | 2057 | 273 | $114.37 | 33.987% | 0.538% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ColinMacLeod | 2157 | 453 | $191.00 | 48.881% | 6.491% | 0.065% | 0.052% | 0.010% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| Yi_Zhang | 2085 | 237 | $114.66 | 36.082% | 0.358% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Parchandri | 1988 | 427 | $128.13 | 33.455% | 1.953% | 0.006% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jonderry | 2122 | 242 | $123.99 | 42.206% | 0.678% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cnettel | 2136 | 394 | $165.13 | 46.585% | 4.299% | 0.019% | 0.015% | 0.003% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| kyky | 2107 | 324 | $136.88 | 42.318% | 1.950% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ragnabot | 2029 | 269 | $108.49 | 30.056% | 0.343% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Larry | 2107 | 314 | $134.55 | 42.071% | 1.744% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dpecora | 1954 | 220 | $91.72 | 16.524% | 0.020% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Googly | 1919 | 297 | $96.41 | 19.926% | 0.149% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| pzhao | 2145 | 452 | $185.09 | 47.811% | 6.062% | 0.049% | 0.038% | 0.008% | 0.002% | 0.001% |
| jasonw | 2028 | 359 | $123.74 | 34.609% | 1.409% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| turuthok | 2044 | 232 | $106.11 | 29.471% | 0.164% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| PAKETA | 1919 | 324 | $99.64 | 21.924% | 0.271% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| abiczo | 1942 | 389 | $112.23 | 27.851% | 0.936% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| DrewHudson | 2029 | 367 | $125.56 | 35.028% | 1.548% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| PurpleBob | 1707 | 466 | $94.32 | 15.960% | 0.335% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| achurch | 2026 | 346 | $120.77 | 33.859% | 1.188% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| futo | 1844 | 460 | $108.09 | 23.862% | 0.919% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| chogyonim | 1878 | 471 | $114.81 | 26.705% | 1.303% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kyotov | 2016 | 459 | $141.83 | 36.837% | 2.965% | 0.011% | 0.010% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| shuvovse | 1902 | 349 | $100.68 | 22.095% | 0.358% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| assembler | 1865 | 265 | $87.83 | 12.586% | 0.024% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dokon | 1858 | 314 | $92.04 | 16.035% | 0.100% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| sliu | 1806 | 434 | $100.11 | 20.030% | 0.507% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| sandeepgupta | 1854 | 405 | $101.99 | 21.725% | 0.526% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jfreyss | 1961 | 410 | $119.23 | 30.469% | 1.372% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| router | 1875 | 381 | $101.43 | 21.893% | 0.454% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Minsk | 1967 | 532 | $144.45 | 35.105% | 3.364% | 0.022% | 0.018% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| koehrsen | 1958 | 378 | $113.17 | 28.711% | 0.944% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| UFP2161 | 1728 | 374 | $87.68 | 11.852% | 0.083% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| AdamSelene | 1791 | 406 | $95.44 | 17.481% | 0.296% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hamster | 2193 | 451 | $207.12 | 52.077% | 7.779% | 0.058% | 0.044% | 0.010% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| toast | 1648 | 327 | $80.63 | 5.563% | 0.007% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kats | 1707 | 434 | $91.34 | 14.251% | 0.209% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Vaduz | 1787 | 344 | $89.12 | 13.276% | 0.084% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| emmpee | 1731 | 470 | $96.73 | 17.449% | 0.427% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| MisterZimbu | 1686 | 328 | $82.17 | 7.036% | 0.013% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cbaray | 1757 | 463 | $98.41 | 18.559% | 0.484% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| \u0043\u0042 | 1714 | 355 | $85.38 | 9.947% | 0.044% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Ag98 | 1510 | 483 | $84.32 | 8.553% | 0.077% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| huntergt | 1441 | 381 | $77.82 | 2.799% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dplass | 1397 | 536 | $83.12 | 7.421% | 0.070% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |