Return to TopCoder Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 134217728 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| SnapDragon | 3464 | 316 | $31,103.94 | 99.998% | 99.368% | 87.071% | 2.092% | 8.224% | 22.987% | 53.768% |
| tomek | 3255 | 356 | $15,751.64 | 99.880% | 94.986% | 68.224% | 6.780% | 15.294% | 24.954% | 21.196% |
| reid | 3048 | 374 | $6,719.44 | 99.043% | 84.066% | 42.864% | 10.584% | 13.752% | 11.816% | 6.712% |
| ZorbaTHut | 2860 | 439 | $2,819.31 | 94.232% | 63.533% | 20.731% | 8.485% | 6.082% | 4.052% | 2.111% |
| NGBronson | 2968 | 388 | $4,504.34 | 98.007% | 76.922% | 31.429% | 10.020% | 9.989% | 7.526% | 3.895% |
| Yarin | 2938 | 311 | $3,646.64 | 99.301% | 80.559% | 27.905% | 8.671% | 10.171% | 6.728% | 2.336% |
| bladerunner | 2832 | 324 | $2,112.95 | 97.920% | 68.519% | 15.966% | 6.215% | 5.621% | 3.194% | 0.936% |
| ChristopherH | 2786 | 357 | $1,631.16 | 95.771% | 60.710% | 10.656% | 4.378% | 3.522% | 2.074% | 0.683% |
| radeye | 2847 | 258 | $1,773.63 | 99.532% | 75.513% | 10.043% | 3.237% | 3.842% | 2.362% | 0.602% |
| dmwright | 2825 | 335 | $1,605.08 | 97.450% | 66.699% | 7.695% | 2.582% | 2.565% | 1.821% | 0.728% |
| bstanescu | 2746 | 295 | $1,073.58 | 97.408% | 59.251% | 3.963% | 1.557% | 1.386% | 0.794% | 0.226% |
| venco | 2741 | 318 | $1,094.03 | 96.344% | 57.296% | 4.545% | 1.873% | 1.537% | 0.872% | 0.263% |
| WishingBone | 2810 | 379 | $1,648.18 | 95.441% | 62.040% | 9.089% | 3.450% | 2.879% | 1.940% | 0.819% |
| ambrose | 2561 | 365 | $601.76 | 85.855% | 33.216% | 2.142% | 1.263% | 0.589% | 0.234% | 0.055% |
| malpt | 2677 | 391 | $1,001.11 | 90.305% | 46.233% | 5.612% | 2.834% | 1.666% | 0.843% | 0.270% |
| DjinnKahn | 2556 | 292 | $555.87 | 90.661% | 32.123% | 1.677% | 1.041% | 0.477% | 0.140% | 0.019% |
| bigg_nate | 2672 | 497 | $1,154.02 | 84.474% | 42.672% | 7.310% | 3.771% | 1.903% | 1.102% | 0.535% |
| snewman | 2949 | 579 | $3,915.99 | 91.147% | 62.855% | 22.277% | 7.868% | 5.493% | 4.642% | 4.274% |
| dary | 2642 | 454 | $979.98 | 85.167% | 40.757% | 6.236% | 3.382% | 1.683% | 0.847% | 0.324% |
| tjq | 2608 | 275 | $685.84 | 94.373% | 39.420% | 2.854% | 1.679% | 0.879% | 0.261% | 0.035% |
| doeth | 2407 | 423 | $385.85 | 71.345% | 19.124% | 1.209% | 0.847% | 0.260% | 0.084% | 0.019% |
| obfuscator | 2379 | 304 | $291.74 | 75.474% | 13.098% | 0.335% | 0.251% | 0.069% | 0.013% | 0.001% |
| evd | 2439 | 440 | $440.46 | 73.060% | 21.972% | 1.651% | 1.113% | 0.370% | 0.133% | 0.035% |
| antimatter | 2548 | 324 | $564.02 | 87.858% | 31.417% | 2.049% | 1.275% | 0.569% | 0.176% | 0.029% |
| Xu Chuan | 2355 | 394 | $309.04 | 68.161% | 14.568% | 0.575% | 0.421% | 0.116% | 0.032% | 0.006% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| legakis | 2243 | 201 | $153.99 | 64.135% | 1.477% | 0.004% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| zoidal | 2306 | 324 | $235.06 | 66.349% | 8.915% | 0.157% | 0.123% | 0.028% | 0.005% | 0.000% |
| LunaticFringe | 2285 | 642 | $363.67 | 57.165% | 15.657% | 1.409% | 0.990% | 0.243% | 0.117% | 0.059% |
| Oblok | 2175 | 433 | $194.08 | 50.502% | 6.449% | 0.137% | 0.112% | 0.020% | 0.005% | 0.001% |
| schveiguy | 2329 | 292 | $238.87 | 70.765% | 8.960% | 0.122% | 0.095% | 0.023% | 0.004% | 0.000% |
| adic | 2345 | 384 | $293.01 | 67.662% | 13.573% | 0.423% | 0.311% | 0.085% | 0.023% | 0.004% |
| Maris | 2199 | 257 | $150.64 | 54.544% | 2.093% | 0.007% | 0.006% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Logan | 2158 | 406 | $177.36 | 48.855% | 5.141% | 0.074% | 0.061% | 0.011% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2286 | 452 | $270.16 | 60.208% | 11.947% | 0.423% | 0.315% | 0.078% | 0.024% | 0.005% |
| vorthys | 1987 | 437 | $129.47 | 33.734% | 2.034% | 0.016% | 0.014% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Wasteland | 2263 | 389 | $228.96 | 59.521% | 8.897% | 0.175% | 0.136% | 0.031% | 0.007% | 0.001% |
| Abednego | 2283 | 334 | $221.39 | 63.323% | 8.005% | 0.103% | 0.081% | 0.018% | 0.004% | 0.000% |
| haha | 2335 | 344 | $265.17 | 68.516% | 11.498% | 0.207% | 0.154% | 0.042% | 0.009% | 0.001% |
| eldering | 2294 | 385 | $248.64 | 62.715% | 10.418% | 0.203% | 0.154% | 0.039% | 0.010% | 0.002% |
| gilbert | 2144 | 235 | $128.11 | 45.672% | 0.742% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| milhouse | 2304 | 440 | $277.32 | 62.048% | 12.633% | 0.366% | 0.267% | 0.071% | 0.023% | 0.005% |
| Modulator | 2074 | 226 | $110.76 | 33.672% | 0.208% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mathijs | 2282 | 532 | $296.10 | 58.404% | 13.598% | 0.587% | 0.418% | 0.108% | 0.045% | 0.016% |
| Ryan | 2058 | 373 | $133.48 | 38.192% | 2.009% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| halflife | 2093 | 270 | $121.37 | 38.823% | 0.753% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jshute | 2124 | 299 | $135.44 | 43.928% | 1.643% | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jonmac | 2227 | 570 | $269.08 | 54.029% | 11.796% | 0.481% | 0.349% | 0.082% | 0.035% | 0.014% |
| madking | 2096 | 230 | $115.80 | 37.486% | 0.331% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cvoinescu | 2409 | 362 | $341.85 | 74.635% | 17.759% | 0.363% | 0.245% | 0.086% | 0.028% | 0.005% |
| along | 2208 | 443 | $212.30 | 53.466% | 7.988% | 0.112% | 0.086% | 0.019% | 0.006% | 0.001% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| skanthak | 2053 | 421 | $142.88 | 39.048% | 2.845% | 0.014% | 0.012% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| wleite | 2037 | 320 | $117.88 | 33.885% | 0.897% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| gepa | 2143 | 584 | $221.87 | 48.170% | 8.818% | 0.242% | 0.182% | 0.037% | 0.016% | 0.006% |
| space | 2005 | 246 | $101.45 | 25.228% | 0.123% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hgliebe | 2007 | 416 | $129.71 | 34.731% | 1.981% | 0.006% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Klinck | 2142 | 284 | $137.42 | 46.134% | 1.624% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mathgodleo | 2057 | 273 | $114.06 | 33.988% | 0.507% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ColinMacLeod | 2157 | 453 | $189.34 | 48.887% | 6.331% | 0.063% | 0.050% | 0.010% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| Yi_Zhang | 2064 | 256 | $112.89 | 34.015% | 0.387% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Parchandri | 1956 | 472 | $129.19 | 32.473% | 2.147% | 0.009% | 0.008% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jonderry | 2076 | 241 | $113.15 | 34.920% | 0.323% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cnettel | 2136 | 394 | $163.81 | 46.589% | 4.169% | 0.018% | 0.015% | 0.003% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| kyky | 2107 | 355 | $143.39 | 42.966% | 2.529% | 0.005% | 0.004% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ragnabot | 2029 | 269 | $108.29 | 30.061% | 0.322% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Larry | 2033 | 294 | $112.71 | 32.085% | 0.562% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dpecora | 1954 | 220 | $91.71 | 16.533% | 0.018% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Googly | 1985 | 292 | $104.35 | 26.351% | 0.299% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| pzhao | 2145 | 452 | $183.58 | 47.819% | 5.917% | 0.048% | 0.038% | 0.007% | 0.002% | 0.001% |
| jasonw | 2028 | 359 | $123.15 | 34.612% | 1.350% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| turuthok | 2011 | 241 | $101.75 | 25.587% | 0.116% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| PAKETA | 1919 | 324 | $99.50 | 21.925% | 0.258% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| abiczo | 1942 | 389 | $111.87 | 27.854% | 0.900% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| DrewHudson | 2063 | 396 | $139.93 | 39.342% | 2.542% | 0.006% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| PurpleBob | 1884 | 318 | $94.90 | 18.435% | 0.147% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| achurch | 2028 | 390 | $129.37 | 35.771% | 1.852% | 0.003% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| futo | 1990 | 402 | $123.16 | 32.687% | 1.541% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| chogyonim | 1878 | 471 | $114.43 | 26.702% | 1.265% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kyotov | 2016 | 459 | $140.95 | 36.834% | 2.880% | 0.011% | 0.009% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| shuvovse | 1902 | 349 | $100.52 | 22.110% | 0.341% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| assembler | 1911 | 273 | $92.85 | 17.210% | 0.064% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dokon | 1858 | 314 | $91.99 | 16.047% | 0.094% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| sliu | 1806 | 434 | $99.91 | 20.028% | 0.488% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| sandeepgupta | 1854 | 405 | $101.79 | 21.716% | 0.507% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jfreyss | 1961 | 410 | $118.77 | 30.477% | 1.325% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| router | 1875 | 381 | $101.27 | 21.908% | 0.436% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Minsk | 1967 | 532 | $143.62 | 35.105% | 3.284% | 0.021% | 0.018% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| koehrsen | 1958 | 378 | $112.80 | 28.713% | 0.907% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| UFP2161 | 1794 | 390 | $93.96 | 16.716% | 0.224% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| AdamSelene | 1791 | 406 | $95.33 | 17.482% | 0.285% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hamster | 2123 | 493 | $185.07 | 46.211% | 6.189% | 0.051% | 0.040% | 0.008% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| toast | 1648 | 327 | $80.63 | 5.561% | 0.006% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kats | 1831 | 419 | $100.84 | 20.873% | 0.496% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Vaduz | 1809 | 378 | $94.05 | 16.944% | 0.211% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| emmpee | 1731 | 470 | $96.59 | 17.453% | 0.413% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| MisterZimbu | 1686 | 328 | $82.16 | 7.040% | 0.012% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| cbaray | 1757 | 463 | $98.23 | 18.556% | 0.467% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| \u0043\u0042 | 1714 | 355 | $85.37 | 9.952% | 0.041% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Ag98 | 1677 | 376 | $84.94 | 9.486% | 0.045% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| huntergt | 1441 | 381 | $77.82 | 2.803% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dplass | 1397 | 536 | $83.11 | 7.425% | 0.068% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |