Return to TCCC 2004 Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 536870912 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| tomek | 3429 | 340 | $15,393.76 | 99.891% | 96.749% | 87.747% | 3.106% | 9.955% | 23.362% | 51.323% |
| reid | 3041 | 414 | $3,911.67 | 94.657% | 73.684% | 45.238% | 11.631% | 13.438% | 11.879% | 8.290% |
| John Dethridge | 3187 | 385 | $7,194.08 | 98.229% | 86.150% | 64.375% | 9.093% | 16.210% | 21.276% | 17.796% |
| ZorbaTHut | 3089 | 245 | $4,208.96 | 99.772% | 89.979% | 49.488% | 7.675% | 17.108% | 17.531% | 7.173% |
| mathijs | 2906 | 415 | $1,950.80 | 90.074% | 60.065% | 28.376% | 10.129% | 8.727% | 6.130% | 3.390% |
| bladerunner | 2893 | 266 | $944.69 | 97.257% | 65.596% | 15.962% | 5.179% | 6.078% | 3.613% | 1.091% |
| dgarthur | 2831 | 313 | $638.61 | 92.689% | 52.761% | 11.247% | 4.226% | 4.004% | 2.252% | 0.765% |
| bstanescu | 2943 | 603 | $2,722.72 | 82.907% | 52.383% | 31.682% | 11.453% | 7.473% | 6.214% | 6.542% |
| Eryx | 2726 | 326 | $419.45 | 85.978% | 40.092% | 8.985% | 4.200% | 3.045% | 1.384% | 0.357% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2578 | 272 | $65.44 | 77.247% | 20.056% | 1.843% | 1.066% | 0.587% | 0.169% | 0.022% |
| dary | 2553 | 330 | $93.57 | 70.687% | 19.024% | 2.597% | 1.567% | 0.748% | 0.239% | 0.043% |
| tjq | 2519 | 436 | $152.10 | 63.126% | 17.376% | 3.833% | 2.341% | 0.978% | 0.389% | 0.125% |
| aneubeck | 2513 | 335 | $58.52 | 66.152% | 14.486% | 1.695% | 1.071% | 0.463% | 0.136% | 0.025% |
| AdrianKuegel | 2459 | 317 | $25.70 | 60.598% | 9.873% | 0.813% | 0.548% | 0.208% | 0.051% | 0.008% |
| lars | 2655 | 491 | $454.46 | 71.804% | 27.381% | 8.629% | 4.439% | 2.299% | 1.245% | 0.647% |
| po | 2384 | 209 | $1.89 | 51.840% | 3.577% | 0.072% | 0.055% | 0.015% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| m00tz | 2493 | 356 | $63.95 | 63.157% | 14.036% | 1.841% | 1.172% | 0.489% | 0.150% | 0.030% |
| dangelo | 2485 | 320 | $43.00 | 63.601% | 12.698% | 1.306% | 0.846% | 0.352% | 0.094% | 0.014% |
| ante | 2371 | 394 | $34.20 | 49.670% | 8.179% | 1.084% | 0.760% | 0.244% | 0.067% | 0.013% |
| gepa | 2324 | 367 | $15.89 | 44.517% | 5.540% | 0.547% | 0.404% | 0.114% | 0.026% | 0.004% |
| antimatter | 2676 | 644 | $906.28 | 68.187% | 29.101% | 14.248% | 7.110% | 3.223% | 2.147% | 1.768% |
| grotmol | 2535 | 457 | $192.19 | 63.878% | 18.333% | 4.573% | 2.709% | 1.177% | 0.505% | 0.182% |
| haha | 2536 | 441 | $170.06 | 64.443% | 18.104% | 4.118% | 2.443% | 1.077% | 0.446% | 0.152% |
| Abednego | 2464 | 513 | $157.26 | 57.018% | 14.727% | 3.784% | 2.367% | 0.872% | 0.381% | 0.163% |
| Ryan | 2366 | 291 | $6.70 | 48.872% | 4.793% | 0.241% | 0.178% | 0.052% | 0.009% | 0.001% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | ||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| Ruberik | 2246 | 368 | $6.09 | 36.285% | 3.057% | 0.225% | 0.176% | 0.040% | 0.008% | 0.001% |
| overwise | 2363 | 469 | $56.79 | 49.039% | 9.020% | 1.647% | 1.137% | 0.353% | 0.121% | 0.036% |
| ploh | 2353 | 277 | $4.73 | 46.946% | 3.965% | 0.174% | 0.131% | 0.037% | 0.006% | 0.000% |
| kalinov | 2197 | 388 | $5.46 | 32.266% | 2.439% | 0.206% | 0.165% | 0.034% | 0.006% | 0.001% |
| eldering | 2152 | 279 | $0.31 | 21.346% | 0.537% | 0.013% | 0.011% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mickle | 2204 | 379 | $5.20 | 32.548% | 2.376% | 0.197% | 0.157% | 0.033% | 0.006% | 0.001% |
| Per | 2347 | 445 | $43.83 | 47.544% | 7.694% | 1.343% | 0.946% | 0.286% | 0.089% | 0.022% |
| skanthak | 2194 | 353 | $3.02 | 30.378% | 1.765% | 0.118% | 0.096% | 0.019% | 0.003% | 0.000% |
| StefanPochmann | 2035 | 393 | $1.10 | 19.273% | 0.685% | 0.046% | 0.040% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| qsort | 2096 | 331 | $0.57 | 19.970% | 0.574% | 0.024% | 0.021% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| petko | 2091 | 317 | $0.38 | 18.557% | 0.450% | 0.016% | 0.014% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| robymus | 2101 | 344 | $0.84 | 21.263% | 0.707% | 0.035% | 0.030% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| jasonw | 2034 | 305 | $0.12 | 13.283% | 0.194% | 0.005% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Larry | 2182 | 454 | $12.10 | 33.459% | 3.167% | 0.435% | 0.344% | 0.071% | 0.017% | 0.003% |
| Fluff | 1946 | 323 | $0.06 | 9.295% | 0.093% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dark_lord | 1979 | 251 | $0.01 | 6.050% | 0.025% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jburnim | 1933 | 370 | $0.19 | 11.603% | 0.191% | 0.008% | 0.008% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kalmakka | 2095 | 473 | $6.97 | 27.581% | 2.068% | 0.264% | 0.217% | 0.037% | 0.008% | 0.002% |
| RalphFurmaniak | 2147 | 525 | $17.99 | 33.106% | 3.599% | 0.612% | 0.480% | 0.095% | 0.028% | 0.008% |
| lovro | 1944 | 417 | $0.54 | 14.987% | 0.396% | 0.023% | 0.021% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| szymcio | 1910 | 367 | $0.10 | 10.262% | 0.133% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| userundefined | 1662 | 355 | $0.00 | 2.295% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| charleston | 2011 | 558 | $7.43 | 25.568% | 1.968% | 0.267% | 0.218% | 0.035% | 0.010% | 0.003% |
| bsauerwine | 1624 | 388 | $0.00 | 2.686% | 0.006% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| connect4 | 1589 | 566 | $0.23 | 8.156% | 0.140% | 0.010% | 0.009% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |