Return to TCCC 2004 Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 134217728 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| tomek | 3547 | 228 | $19,733.28 | 100.000% | 100.000% | 99.789% | 97.069% | 0.633% | 4.774% | 21.161% | 70.501% |
| reid | 3179 | 290 | $5,907.97 | 99.993% | 99.750% | 92.877% | 69.095% | 9.627% | 23.029% | 26.973% | 9.467% |
| John Dethridge | 3156 | 411 | $5,617.55 | 99.614% | 97.159% | 83.134% | 61.898% | 12.724% | 18.285% | 19.316% | 11.573% |
| ZorbaTHut | 3080 | 265 | $3,427.28 | 99.993% | 99.648% | 89.069% | 51.592% | 11.312% | 20.262% | 16.338% | 3.681% |
| mathijs | 2843 | 429 | $1,190.38 | 96.629% | 84.778% | 52.200% | 22.568% | 10.378% | 6.763% | 4.029% | 1.399% |
| bladerunner | 2871 | 284 | $577.61 | 99.771% | 96.365% | 63.456% | 12.685% | 5.502% | 4.629% | 2.227% | 0.328% |
| dgarthur | 2835 | 340 | $492.68 | 98.854% | 91.354% | 54.133% | 10.451% | 4.779% | 3.503% | 1.783% | 0.386% |
| bstanescu | 2793 | 535 | $1,008.30 | 91.566% | 73.208% | 40.013% | 17.724% | 8.691% | 4.549% | 2.928% | 1.556% |
| Eryx | 2768 | 344 | $518.04 | 98.012% | 87.201% | 46.399% | 12.335% | 6.218% | 4.060% | 1.769% | 0.288% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2577 | 297 | $79.31 | 95.890% | 74.871% | 21.914% | 2.543% | 1.645% | 0.718% | 0.170% | 0.010% |
| dary | 2598 | 347 | $140.60 | 93.979% | 72.020% | 24.377% | 4.203% | 2.647% | 1.166% | 0.354% | 0.037% |
| tjq | 2574 | 453 | $191.29 | 87.307% | 60.512% | 20.316% | 5.110% | 3.203% | 1.273% | 0.513% | 0.121% |
| aneubeck | 2499 | 371 | $51.74 | 88.279% | 58.253% | 14.004% | 1.685% | 1.170% | 0.397% | 0.107% | 0.011% |
| AdrianKuegel | 2447 | 348 | $21.67 | 86.811% | 53.277% | 9.969% | 0.764% | 0.561% | 0.165% | 0.035% | 0.003% |
| lars | 2538 | 442 | $105.55 | 86.168% | 57.579% | 16.653% | 2.980% | 1.945% | 0.713% | 0.265% | 0.057% |
| Klinck | 2505 | 365 | $46.28 | 88.960% | 59.458% | 13.952% | 1.508% | 1.046% | 0.356% | 0.096% | 0.010% |
| evd | 2455 | 314 | $18.68 | 89.641% | 56.933% | 10.129% | 0.672% | 0.495% | 0.148% | 0.028% | 0.001% |
| po | 2422 | 210 | $2.67 | 95.579% | 61.004% | 6.092% | 0.106% | 0.083% | 0.021% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| m00tz | 2441 | 377 | $38.01 | 84.534% | 50.631% | 10.280% | 1.295% | 0.930% | 0.289% | 0.070% | 0.006% |
| dangelo | 2445 | 338 | $27.75 | 87.368% | 53.703% | 9.969% | 0.980% | 0.713% | 0.220% | 0.045% | 0.003% |
| ante | 2372 | 433 | $34.29 | 76.634% | 40.066% | 7.464% | 1.170% | 0.865% | 0.235% | 0.062% | 0.008% |
| gepa | 2315 | 404 | $14.93 | 73.801% | 34.538% | 4.896% | 0.551% | 0.427% | 0.101% | 0.021% | 0.002% |
| Mike Mirzayanov | 2398 | 431 | $39.94 | 78.546% | 42.974% | 8.492% | 1.336% | 0.973% | 0.277% | 0.076% | 0.010% |
| antimatter | 2533 | 597 | $258.32 | 78.765% | 49.059% | 16.334% | 5.889% | 3.661% | 1.275% | 0.651% | 0.302% |
| grotmol | 2511 | 498 | $137.54 | 81.914% | 51.582% | 14.944% | 3.708% | 2.416% | 0.850% | 0.346% | 0.096% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| Oblok | 2169 | 284 | $0.22 | 65.147% | 17.420% | 0.596% | 0.009% | 0.008% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| haha | 2504 | 474 | $109.28 | 82.722% | 52.156% | 14.476% | 3.065% | 2.025% | 0.706% | 0.270% | 0.065% |
| jonderry | 2175 | 250 | $0.08 | 67.901% | 16.957% | 0.426% | 0.004% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jms137 | 2376 | 383 | $16.64 | 79.713% | 42.260% | 6.687% | 0.599% | 0.454% | 0.118% | 0.026% | 0.002% |
| Abednego | 2368 | 512 | $49.58 | 72.817% | 37.576% | 7.941% | 1.536% | 1.110% | 0.298% | 0.103% | 0.025% |
| Ryan | 2288 | 259 | $0.79 | 81.145% | 33.364% | 1.893% | 0.033% | 0.028% | 0.005% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Ruberik | 2217 | 400 | $4.22 | 65.468% | 24.352% | 2.269% | 0.167% | 0.138% | 0.025% | 0.004% | 0.000% |
| overwise | 2333 | 516 | $42.02 | 70.350% | 34.372% | 6.698% | 1.345% | 0.992% | 0.252% | 0.083% | 0.019% |
| ploh | 2302 | 282 | $1.90 | 80.578% | 35.234% | 2.518% | 0.077% | 0.063% | 0.013% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| kalinov | 2059 | 282 | $0.03 | 50.072% | 7.889% | 0.121% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| monsoon | 2286 | 377 | $7.64 | 72.760% | 31.665% | 3.470% | 0.296% | 0.236% | 0.050% | 0.009% | 0.001% |
| cnettel | 2163 | 346 | $1.07 | 61.904% | 18.422% | 0.968% | 0.045% | 0.039% | 0.006% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| eldering | 2103 | 286 | $0.09 | 56.193% | 11.230% | 0.241% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mickle | 2091 | 313 | $0.17 | 54.149% | 11.299% | 0.297% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Per | 2347 | 507 | $49.31 | 71.626% | 35.769% | 7.000% | 1.578% | 1.155% | 0.304% | 0.099% | 0.021% |
| Tomy | 1990 | 261 | $0.00 | 39.650% | 3.618% | 0.023% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| skanthak | 2170 | 385 | $2.45 | 61.440% | 19.807% | 1.357% | 0.101% | 0.086% | 0.014% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| Minsk | 2090 | 413 | $1.51 | 53.058% | 14.139% | 0.805% | 0.064% | 0.055% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| StefanPochmann | 2031 | 432 | $1.04 | 47.446% | 11.011% | 0.547% | 0.044% | 0.039% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| pzhao | 2024 | 364 | $0.23 | 46.210% | 8.709% | 0.248% | 0.010% | 0.009% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| qsort | 2087 | 365 | $0.58 | 53.122% | 12.675% | 0.508% | 0.025% | 0.022% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ColinMacLeod | 2124 | 443 | $3.40 | 55.911% | 17.140% | 1.319% | 0.139% | 0.118% | 0.018% | 0.003% | 0.000% |
| Yi_Zhang | 1959 | 364 | $0.09 | 39.199% | 5.681% | 0.112% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| petko | 2060 | 345 | $0.24 | 50.172% | 10.237% | 0.299% | 0.011% | 0.010% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| robymus | 2029 | 351 | $0.17 | 46.634% | 8.571% | 0.222% | 0.008% | 0.007% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| Kavan | 2147 | 333 | $0.62 | 60.507% | 16.623% | 0.708% | 0.027% | 0.023% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Alexandre | 2050 | 322 | $0.10 | 48.948% | 8.824% | 0.194% | 0.005% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jasonw | 1995 | 327 | $0.04 | 42.278% | 6.062% | 0.099% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Larry | 2030 | 332 | $0.09 | 46.566% | 8.006% | 0.171% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ragnabot | 1911 | 340 | $0.02 | 33.163% | 3.400% | 0.037% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Fluff | 1901 | 346 | $0.02 | 32.396% | 3.278% | 0.037% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| WhiteShadow | 1775 | 358 | $0.00 | 21.362% | 1.227% | 0.007% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dark_lord | 1921 | 244 | $0.00 | 28.722% | 1.322% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| SteveStern | 1826 | 426 | $0.06 | 29.176% | 3.264% | 0.058% | 0.003% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Running Wild | 1810 | 332 | $0.00 | 22.663% | 1.265% | 0.006% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| jburnim | 1876 | 392 | $0.05 | 32.014% | 3.724% | 0.061% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| kalmakka | 1996 | 487 | $1.40 | 44.869% | 10.542% | 0.617% | 0.059% | 0.052% | 0.006% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| fiasco | 1759 | 236 | $0.00 | 10.406% | 0.089% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| UltraMilo | 2056 | 432 | $1.08 | 49.762% | 12.440% | 0.672% | 0.046% | 0.040% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| RalphFurmaniak | 2013 | 503 | $1.92 | 46.383% | 11.715% | 0.785% | 0.079% | 0.069% | 0.008% | 0.002% | 0.000% |
| freestyler | 1967 | 370 | $0.08 | 40.194% | 6.175% | 0.131% | 0.004% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| agh | 1959 | 336 | $0.02 | 38.324% | 4.853% | 0.067% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| pparys | 2126 | 642 | $18.55 | 54.208% | 19.734% | 2.901% | 0.611% | 0.484% | 0.085% | 0.031% | 0.011% |
| Henry | 1794 | 262 | $0.00 | 15.721% | 0.325% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| dmks | 1843 | 322 | $0.00 | 25.129% | 1.558% | 0.008% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| hauser | 1996 | 424 | $0.29 | 44.115% | 9.000% | 0.340% | 0.013% | 0.012% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| viktoras | 1721 | 399 | $0.00 | 19.806% | 1.189% | 0.008% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| indigo9 | 1695 | 369 | $0.00 | 16.180% | 0.657% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Revenger | 1627 | 358 | $0.00 | 11.380% | 0.272% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| ValD | 1707 | 291 | $0.00 | 11.406% | 0.184% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Expected | Probability of advancing to at least: | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | Round 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Finals | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| FRaiser | 1626 | 277 | $0.00 | 6.018% | 0.035% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| lovro | 1812 | 381 | $0.01 | 25.812% | 2.119% | 0.020% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| blackbeltcoder4 | 1651 | 322 | $0.00 | 10.302% | 0.178% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| marian | 2062 | 462 | $1.04 | 50.307% | 13.482% | 0.840% | 0.043% | 0.037% | 0.005% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| Terrax | 1782 | 389 | $0.00 | 23.784% | 1.787% | 0.015% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| saraedum2 | 1837 | 336 | $0.00 | 25.438% | 1.715% | 0.010% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| szymcio | 1864 | 410 | $0.02 | 31.682% | 3.820% | 0.064% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| acki2003 | 1625 | 320 | $0.00 | 8.803% | 0.121% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| userundefined | 1577 | 342 | $0.00 | 7.967% | 0.108% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| gevak | 1627 | 219 | $0.00 | 2.615% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Dumitru | 1722 | 349 | $0.00 | 16.712% | 0.652% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| EtherMage | 1753 | 530 | $0.09 | 28.131% | 3.695% | 0.103% | 0.004% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| db | 1697 | 406 | $0.00 | 18.592% | 1.048% | 0.006% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Jasko | 1628 | 190 | $0.00 | 1.351% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| belzebub | 1686 | 243 | $0.00 | 6.432% | 0.030% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| charleston | 1804 | 455 | $0.02 | 28.712% | 3.366% | 0.063% | 0.001% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| entity | 1536 | 322 | $0.00 | 5.273% | 0.037% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| bsauerwine | 1508 | 340 | $0.00 | 5.301% | 0.042% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| zhliu | 1619 | 584 | $0.05 | 22.485% | 2.393% | 0.057% | 0.002% | 0.002% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Wronkyn | 1621 | 430 | $0.00 | 15.382% | 0.724% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| HappyMutant | 1505 | 377 | $0.00 | 7.097% | 0.099% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| mafattah | 1532 | 413 | $0.00 | 10.077% | 0.258% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| psangeljg | 1586 | 384 | $0.00 | 10.894% | 0.276% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Spike | 1407 | 479 | $0.00 | 8.642% | 0.223% | 0.001% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| connect4 | 1441 | 539 | $0.00 | 12.519% | 0.591% | 0.004% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |