Return to GCJ 2004 Predictions
These predictions are based on the results of 1073741824 Monte Carlo simulations. Coders are sorted by tournament seed, which is rating immediately prior to Round One. More information about these predictions is available.
Please realize that this is an absurd level of precision and should not be taken too seriously. Remember that anything can happen and have fun in the Arena!
| Expected | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | 33rd-50th Place | 21st-32nd Place | 11th-20th Place | 6th-10th Place | 5th Place | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| tomek | 3409 | 636 | $4,718.21 | 4.065% | 7.762% | 13.979% | 14.540% | 4.609% | 5.836% | 7.937% | 12.410% | 28.862% |
| Eryx | 3225 | 540 | $3,455.97 | 4.371% | 10.284% | 19.062% | 18.733% | 5.566% | 6.737% | 8.539% | 11.593% | 15.114% |
| Yarin | 3092 | 335 | $2,016.53 | 1.022% | 8.976% | 29.257% | 29.882% | 7.324% | 7.448% | 7.078% | 5.810% | 3.203% |
| snewman | 3339 | 434 | $3,964.06 | 0.886% | 5.016% | 15.707% | 20.764% | 6.870% | 8.594% | 11.139% | 14.771% | 16.252% |
| reid | 3173 | 397 | $2,718.44 | 1.487% | 8.353% | 23.260% | 25.506% | 7.243% | 8.210% | 9.148% | 9.479% | 7.314% |
| John_Dethridge | 3054 | 419 | $2,139.74 | 3.714% | 13.590% | 27.624% | 24.071% | 6.072% | 6.527% | 6.853% | 6.670% | 4.878% |
| bladerunner | 3002 | 342 | $1,619.42 | 2.181% | 13.767% | 33.962% | 27.533% | 5.910% | 5.677% | 5.072% | 3.896% | 2.003% |
| antimatter | 3009 | 418 | $1,925.70 | 4.618% | 15.511% | 29.121% | 23.529% | 5.653% | 5.930% | 6.042% | 5.658% | 3.938% |
| jshute | 2720 | 414 | $988.43 | 15.673% | 28.612% | 31.077% | 15.089% | 2.659% | 2.418% | 2.074% | 1.567% | 0.831% |
| bstanescu | 2858 | 293 | $1,007.75 | 3.164% | 21.979% | 43.590% | 22.271% | 3.231% | 2.564% | 1.809% | 1.031% | 0.362% |
| haha | 2799 | 350 | $1,009.90 | 7.967% | 26.633% | 37.349% | 18.508% | 3.005% | 2.577% | 2.028% | 1.346% | 0.585% |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2853 | 362 | $1,176.43 | 6.561% | 23.146% | 36.312% | 20.897% | 3.781% | 3.409% | 2.854% | 2.050% | 0.988% |
| texel | 2808 | 352 | $1,035.35 | 7.713% | 26.031% | 37.231% | 18.938% | 3.132% | 2.709% | 2.155% | 1.449% | 0.642% |
| LunaticFringe | 2754 | 306 | $831.92 | 7.298% | 30.751% | 40.946% | 15.692% | 2.002% | 1.524% | 1.032% | 0.565% | 0.190% |
| lars | 2662 | 316 | $712.96 | 13.016% | 36.853% | 35.887% | 11.004% | 1.267% | 0.933% | 0.611% | 0.322% | 0.105% |
| mathijs | 2738 | 342 | $869.21 | 10.324% | 30.726% | 36.954% | 15.422% | 2.235% | 1.823% | 1.352% | 0.834% | 0.331% |
| overwise | 2518 | 433 | $688.07 | 30.930% | 32.115% | 23.883% | 8.715% | 1.329% | 1.143% | 0.920% | 0.648% | 0.317% |
| ploh | 2793 | 390 | $1,096.35 | 10.501% | 26.160% | 33.847% | 17.967% | 3.234% | 2.945% | 2.514% | 1.872% | 0.960% |
| monsoon | 2477 | 403 | $601.26 | 33.285% | 34.429% | 22.678% | 6.910% | 0.918% | 0.740% | 0.549% | 0.346% | 0.145% |
| krijgertje | 2623 | 537 | $1,076.81 | 27.453% | 25.394% | 23.360% | 12.278% | 2.506% | 2.505% | 2.466% | 2.306% | 1.733% |
| m00tz | 2718 | 428 | $1,017.58 | 16.572% | 28.082% | 30.162% | 15.013% | 2.726% | 2.524% | 2.217% | 1.735% | 0.969% |
| tjq | 2438 | 353 | $520.91 | 35.161% | 38.529% | 20.687% | 4.491% | 0.457% | 0.326% | 0.208% | 0.108% | 0.035% |
| grotmol | 2604 | 659 | $1,341.17 | 32.290% | 21.192% | 19.447% | 11.457% | 2.632% | 2.830% | 3.101% | 3.455% | 3.596% |
| JongMan | 2388 | 411 | $526.71 | 41.841% | 32.964% | 18.431% | 4.985% | 0.624% | 0.492% | 0.356% | 0.219% | 0.089% |
| pparys | 2516 | 487 | $775.33 | 33.028% | 28.785% | 22.457% | 9.494% | 1.651% | 1.522% | 1.344% | 1.079% | 0.641% |
| Expected | Probability of achieving: | |||||||||||
| Name | Rating | Volatility | Winnings | 33rd-50th Place | 21st-32nd Place | 11th-20th Place | 6th-10th Place | 5th Place | 4th Place | 3rd Place | 2nd Place | 1st Place |
| martinp534 | 2673 | 499 | $1,092.78 | 22.811% | 26.218% | 25.695% | 13.538% | 2.702% | 2.656% | 2.542% | 2.270% | 1.569% |
| doeth | 2462 | 295 | $507.95 | 29.692% | 45.237% | 21.441% | 3.154% | 0.226% | 0.139% | 0.073% | 0.030% | 0.007% |
| Ruberik | 2410 | 514 | $677.81 | 41.753% | 27.138% | 18.803% | 7.473% | 1.277% | 1.174% | 1.036% | 0.838% | 0.508% |
| legakis | 2285 | 323 | $407.50 | 52.349% | 35.336% | 10.856% | 1.279% | 0.086% | 0.052% | 0.028% | 0.011% | 0.003% |
| nullspace | 2341 | 352 | $451.97 | 45.794% | 36.067% | 14.994% | 2.601% | 0.232% | 0.157% | 0.095% | 0.046% | 0.014% |
| daveagp | 2549 | 479 | $811.23 | 30.302% | 29.025% | 23.646% | 10.239% | 1.796% | 1.658% | 1.466% | 1.175% | 0.695% |
| tmyklebu | 2296 | 357 | $427.52 | 50.897% | 33.788% | 12.802% | 2.091% | 0.181% | 0.122% | 0.073% | 0.035% | 0.010% |
| ambrose | 2330 | 246 | $410.34 | 45.852% | 44.769% | 8.931% | 0.425% | 0.014% | 0.006% | 0.002% | 0.001% | 0.000% |
| ssancho2 | 2450 | 460 | $644.53 | 37.442% | 30.377% | 20.794% | 7.474% | 1.158% | 1.009% | 0.830% | 0.604% | 0.311% |
| kalmakka | 2323 | 439 | $500.16 | 48.260% | 29.821% | 15.841% | 4.380% | 0.572% | 0.461% | 0.346% | 0.222% | 0.097% |
| lovro | 2217 | 465 | $448.71 | 57.486% | 25.675% | 12.286% | 3.269% | 0.427% | 0.347% | 0.262% | 0.172% | 0.078% |
| gilbert | 2133 | 396 | $366.00 | 66.798% | 24.091% | 7.639% | 1.211% | 0.109% | 0.075% | 0.047% | 0.023% | 0.008% |
| RunningWild | 2060 | 426 | $350.95 | 71.787% | 20.327% | 6.494% | 1.118% | 0.109% | 0.078% | 0.051% | 0.028% | 0.010% |
| asaveljevs | 2174 | 491 | $443.00 | 60.536% | 23.554% | 11.358% | 3.180% | 0.436% | 0.363% | 0.284% | 0.195% | 0.095% |
| jdmetz | 2055 | 355 | $323.65 | 75.884% | 19.637% | 4.046% | 0.383% | 0.024% | 0.014% | 0.008% | 0.003% | 0.001% |
| BjarkeDahlEbert | 2052 | 471 | $369.30 | 70.518% | 19.766% | 7.516% | 1.653% | 0.194% | 0.151% | 0.108% | 0.067% | 0.028% |
| dzetkulict | 2081 | 414 | $353.49 | 70.610% | 21.348% | 6.688% | 1.100% | 0.103% | 0.073% | 0.046% | 0.024% | 0.008% |
| timmac | 2038 | 419 | $340.52 | 73.847% | 19.311% | 5.728% | 0.908% | 0.084% | 0.059% | 0.037% | 0.019% | 0.006% |
| DimaGer | 2057 | 600 | $468.51 | 66.120% | 18.353% | 9.863% | 3.459% | 0.573% | 0.526% | 0.468% | 0.387% | 0.251% |
| qixin99 | 2145 | 748 | $745.40 | 58.501% | 17.173% | 11.939% | 5.797% | 1.215% | 1.258% | 1.319% | 1.401% | 1.397% |
| Parchandri | 1973 | 640 | $455.49 | 69.919% | 16.132% | 8.654% | 3.130% | 0.536% | 0.501% | 0.458% | 0.395% | 0.276% |
| bolu | 1961 | 470 | $336.80 | 76.875% | 16.351% | 5.413% | 1.051% | 0.114% | 0.086% | 0.060% | 0.035% | 0.014% |
| BEHiker57W | 1860 | 612 | $377.80 | 76.784% | 13.814% | 6.348% | 1.958% | 0.302% | 0.269% | 0.231% | 0.183% | 0.111% |
| jorisvr | 2074 | 566 | $447.07 | 65.920% | 19.261% | 9.839% | 3.191% | 0.497% | 0.443% | 0.379% | 0.296% | 0.174% |
| wisdompoet | 1753 | 715 | $407.27 | 78.144% | 11.790% | 6.113% | 2.248% | 0.397% | 0.379% | 0.356% | 0.323% | 0.249% |